Perspectives · Perspectives
Al models are deliberate simplifications of the real world. Attempts to demonstrate a model’s correctness can be expected to fail, or apparently to succeed because of test limitations, such as insufficient data... When a model fails, a variety of narratives may be offered to describe what went wrong. There may be disagreements between experts about the causes of any crisis, depending on who knew, or could have known, about model limitations. Possible elements include:
- A new risk emerged from nowhere and there is nothing anyone could have done to anticipate it - sometimes called a “black swan”.
- The models had unknown weaknesses, which could have been revealed by more thorough testing.
- Model users were well acquainted with model weaknesses, but these were not communicated to senior management accountable for the business
- Everyone knew about the model weaknesses but they continued to take excessive risks regardless. (Maggid, 2017)
Perspectives · Perspectives
"In the brief audio recording, 53% of over 500,000 people answered on a Twitter poll that they heard a man saying the original word "Laurel", while 47% reported hearing a voice saying the name "Yanny". Analysis of the sound frequencies has confirmed that both sets of sounds are present in the mixed recording, but some users focus on the higher frequency sounds in "Yanny" and cannot seem to hear the lower sounds of the word "Laurel". When the audio clip has been slowed to lower frequencies, then the word "Yanny" has been heard by more listeners, while faster playback loudens "Laurel"..."Once again, we did a vote during one of our sustainable project management Masters classes in France, and the votes were essentially split along Yanny or Laurel (and some heard other words), and the arguments were quite strong. Once again, something as simple as this caused a lot of debate. So not only do we see different things under certain circumstances, we may hear different things as well.
"The British are much more formal than the Dutch – they would never ever utter direct criticism but would graciously package their comments," says Edwin Welman, a Dutch banker working for ABN-AMRO in London, who also worked for several years in the US. "Dutch people just tell you what they think and would never opt for polite phrases to explain a situation."Below is an example set of expressions paired with the different interpretations, This provides an interesting example of how sometimes people may be comparing apples to coconuts and not realizing it. So it is not just an image or a sound that we hear and interpret differently, these are phrases that are perceived completely differently between cultures.
There are no experimental data to support the hypothesis that increases in human hydrocarbon use or in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing or can be expected to cause unfavorable changes in global temperatures, weather, or landscape. There is no reason to limit human production of CO2, CH4, and other minor greenhouse gases as has been proposed (82,83,97,123).Solution:
We also need not worry about environmental calamities even if the current natural warming trend continues. The Earth has been much warmer during the past 3,000 years without catastrophic effects. Warmer weather extends growing seasons and generally improves the habitability of colder regions. As coal, oil, and natural gas are used to feed and lift from poverty vast numbers of people across the globe, more CO2 will be released into the atmosphere. This will help to maintain and improve the health, longevity, prosperity, and productivity of all people.As we can see, the two positions disagree on the basic cause and the appropriate response based on completely different perceptions.
Perspectives · Perspectives
‘Modern society has been able to grow far beyond Earth’s (carrying capacity) by using non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and fossil water. However, results from the model show that an unsustainable scenario can be made sustainable by reducing per capita depletion rates, reducing inequality to decrease excessive consumption by the wealthiest, and reducing birth rates to stabilize the population. The key question is whether these changes can be made in time. Current models of climate change include sea level rise, land degradation, regional changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, and some consequences for agriculture, but without modeling the feedback that these significant impacts would have on the Human System, such as geographic and economic displacement, forced migration, destruction of infrastructure, increased economic inequality, nutritional sustenance, fertility, mortality, conflicts, and spread of diseases or other human health consequences’.One solution might be to construct reasonably integrated models that consider human systems and earth systems so we’re comparing apples to apples and not apples to coconuts.
Perspectives · Perspectives
Perspectives · Change Delivery
| # | Characteristic |
| 1 | Benefits Focused |
| 2 | Inclusive Leader |
| 3 | Change Agent |
Perspectives · Change Delivery
"NO big business couldn't care less about sustainability or social responsibility!"
GPM's experience though is the exact opposite:YES big business aggressively cares about sustainability and social responsibility!
Quite simply because they have to.Long viewed as a niche asset class catering to wealthy individuals and institutions that wanted to avoid controversial industries such as tobacco and firearms, sustainable investing seemed to turn a corner last year. Mainstream financial firms such as BlackRock Inc. BLK -0.32% and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS -0.38% jumped into the fray, launching investment products that take into account environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. At the same time, research from Morgan Stanley and others helped dispel concerns that investors have to sacrifice returns to do good.
Consider another recent scientific study with enormous ramifications for anyone living in, or investing in, coastal property. Some eminent scientists concluded that the sea level rise that they thought would occur over centuries is now likely to happen in just decades. The obvious implication is that any investment tied to physical, coastal assets could be at real risk. These time frames are not theoretical for long-term asset owners. A 20-something teacher contributing to her state pension today will expect a payout 50 years from now… around the time that huge areas of Boston, New York, Miami, and New Orleans could be unlivable. If we stay on the current emissions path, the study predicts, the value at risk in global portfolios could range from about $2 trillion to $25 trillion. Forget the polar bears… your pension and retirement funds are in trouble!
“The responsible-investment movement in not a movement started by Wall Street and it’s not a social movement,” says John Streur, president and chief executive of Calvert Research and Management, a subsidiary of Eaton Vance Corp. that manages more than $10 billion in ESG investments. “It’s a movement from large asset owners and large operating companies who have essentially said, ‘We need to do a better job with resource efficiency, environmental impact and social justice, and all those things matter to the financial results of companies.’ ” Many institutional investors, including pension funds, take a long-term perspective on the markets, the economy and the companies they invest in, Mr. Hale says. These investors now consider issues such as how companies are dealing with climate change and their overall environmental impact, along with gender and other diversity issues, and managing their supply chain to ensure human rights and fair labor standards, he says. There’s also evidence that more individual investors are interested in ESG investments, Mr. Hale says. Surveys of emerging investors—those who will control more capital going forward—show that there tends to be a high level of interest in sustainable investing among younger generations and women in general, he says. And more corporations are embracing clean energy and other ESG concerns in recognition of inexorable changes.
The very nature of institutional investment was shaken with this notice.On Tuesday, the chief executives of the world’s largest public companies will be receiving a letter from one of the most influential investors in the world. And what it says is likely to cause a firestorm in the corner offices of companies everywhere and a debate over social responsibility that stretches from Wall Street to Washington.
Laurence D. Fink, founder and chief executive of the investment firm BlackRock, is going to inform business leaders that their companies need to do more than make profits — they need to contribute to society as well if they want to receive the support of BlackRock.
Mr. Fink has the clout to make this kind of demand: His firm manages more than $6 trillion in investments through 401(k) plans, exchange-traded funds and mutual funds, making it the largest investor in the world, and he has an outsize influence on whether directors are voted on and off boards.
“Society is demanding that companies, both public and private, serve a social purpose,” he wrote in a draft of the letter that was shared with me. “To prosper over time, every company must not only deliver financial performance, but also show how it makes a positive contribution to society.”
The governor of the Bank of England has warned of the “catastrophic impact” climate change could have for the financial system unless firms do more to disclose their vulnerabilities. Telling banks and insurers they would need to provide more information about the risks they might face from climate change, Mark Carney said failure to do so would have damaging effects for financial stability. He said the finance industry could be forced into making rapid adjustments if they did not gradually expose where their climate change risks might lie, which he said could trigger steep losses. The governor warned of a “climate Minsky moment”, referring to the work of the economist Hyman Minsky, whose analysis was used to show how banks overreached themselves before the 2008 financial crisis. “Given the uncertainties around climate, not everyone will agree on the timing or scale of the adjustments required … the right information allows skeptics and evangelists alike to back their convictions with their capital,” Carney said.
Since 1997, the Business Roundtable, America’s most influential group of corporate leaders, has agreed on one principle: “The paramount duty of management and of boards of directors is to the corporation’s stockholders,” its mission statement declared.
They recently announced that while "each of our individual companies serves its own corporate purpose, we share a fundamental commitment to all of our stakeholders. We commit to:
Each of our stakeholders is essential. We commit to deliver value to all of them, for the future success of our companies, our communities and our country."
Perspectives · Sustainable Project Management™ Tools and Methods
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| 1 | Benefits Focused |
| 2 | Inclusive Leader |
Perspectives · Business Case
Perspectives · Benefits Management
Drinking straws have a long history and weren't always a big problem. The first ones were made from straw, or any straw-like grass or plant. That changed in the 1880s when Washington, D.C., resident Marvin Stone was drinking a mint julep through a rye grass stalk. He didn't like the residue it left in his drink, and so he wrapped paper around a pencil, removed the pencil, glued the paper together and a straw was born! In 1888, Stone patented a version made from manila paper coated with paraffin. Forty years later, Joseph B. Friedman saw that his daughter was having difficulty drinking though a straight straw. He inserted a screw into a straw, wrapped dental floss around the ridges, removed the screw and invented the flexible or "bendy" straw, which he patented in 1937. The explosion of plastic's popularity in the 1960s and into the '70s spelled the demise of the paper straw. After that, most drinking straw innovations were as much about marketing as function — including the twisty Krazy Straw and the wide straw-and-spoon combo used to drink slushy drinks. Plastic straws are now ubiquitous.One of the first questions though would be are disposable plastic straws really a problem?
Of the eight million tons of plastic trash that flow every year into the world’s oceans, the plastic drinking straw is surely not a top contributor to all that tonnage. However, because straws are small and lightweight, they often never make it into recycling bins; the evidence of this failure is clearly visible on any beach. Straws are among the top ten items found during beach clean ups. And although straws amount to a tiny fraction of ocean plastic, their size makes them one of the most insidious polluters because they are consumed by marine animals, seabirds, turtles and fish.For something that in most cases is a lazy unnecessary luxury item that can easily be not used, it definitely causes more harm than good. How much harm though?
From 112 countries around the world, volunteers, site captains, state and county coordinators worked tirelessly to collect over 18 million pounds of trash. Thanks to you, we covered enough miles of coastline to walk around the moon twice. We’ve collected enough balloons to lift a 2,200 lb. walrus and enough fishing line to reach the bottom of the Mariana Trench – the ocean’s deepest point – nine times over.Straws ranked number 7 in terms of number of unique items found. In terms of what was collected, there were enough straws collected that would equal 145 times the height of the NYC One World Trade Centre (541 meters). So the negative impact and scope of the problem are significant. There is an opportunity for the vast majority of us to join the growing environmental campaign aimed at convincing people to stop using straws to help save the oceans. To quote Diana Lofflin, the founder of StrawFree.org: "You use a straw for 10 minutes, and it never goes away". What I found most interesting doing a very basic search was how much is actually being done about this.
"cities that have banned or limited the use of plastic straws in restaurants. Straws, routinely placed in glasses of water or soda, represent a small percentage of the plastic that’s produced and consumed but often end up on beaches and in oceans. Advocates said laws aimed at cutting back on the use of plastic straws can help spur more significant behavioral changes... 'Giving up plastic straws is a small step, and an easy thing for people to get started on. From there, we can move on to larger projects'”.Even McDonald's recently announced that it will join the anti-straw movement. McDonald's "announced it would switch to paper straws in all of its 1,300 U.K. locations starting in May. Stores also will keep straws behind the counter, and customers will have to ask for a straw if they want one. Chains such as Wagamama and Pizza Express are also moving away from plastic straws". Scotland recently announced plans to ban plastic straws by the end of 2019, and in April of this year, British Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to eradicate single use avoidable plastic waste by 2042. During the recent Commonwealth summit there was a push for leaders from the Commonwealth (a network of 53 countries, mostly former British colonies) to agree to the Blue Charter. "Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced... that Canada will endorse the Commonwealth Blue Charter – an initiative aimed at protecting and conserving the world’s oceans". However, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was asked if he would join Britain in the of avoidable plastic waste ban, regrettably Prime Minister Trudeau skirted the question, responding that he will “talk about this with the G7 nations and look at the solutions.”
...This is the first year The Great Canadian Shoreline Cleanup, a conservation effort between the non-profit group Ocean Wise and the World Wildlife Fund of Canada, have counted the pieces of what the groups call "tiny trash."
"It's not that they haven't always been there, but we're starting to understand why they're so awful for the environment," Rachel Schoeler, manager of the cleanup, told CBC Toronto. "Just because it's small doesn't mean it's not litter."
Nationwide last year, approximately 58,000 volunteers working with the cleanup at various events picked up 333,289 pieces of tiny plastic and foam from all types of shorelines, including oceans, lakes, rivers and wetlands. Cigarette butts come in second with 244,734 pieces picked up. The rest of what the group calls their "Dirty Dozen" list includes items like plastic bottles, food wrappers and straws.
What I found interesting was the impact of straws, listed as number 9: Canada is a huge country. Starting from the East Coast and traveling to the West Coast and then ending out up North, here are some great examples of what grass roots movements are doing. From Canada's most eastern province, there was a post in March 2018 about Newfoundland’s busiest pubs stopping the use of plastic straws. I liked the following insights from the post:Aryn Sanojca, a marine biology student at Dalhousie University, says there’s nothing she hates more than plastic straws. “One huge factor that is often overlooked is that plastics don’t break down into non-existent pieces,” she said. “They break up into smaller pieces that find their way into the entire trophic system.” She says that research is being done that shows coral species are mistaking plastic for food and willingly ingesting it. “Another factor that is worth considering is the use of resources that go in to creating disposable plastics,” she said. “It is common to dismiss the impact of using disposable plastics that are recyclable because they are recycled, but both the production and recycling of disposable plastics is incredibly resource intensive.” Missed frequently, plastic recycling is sent to China and surrounding countries for processing via ships, and shipping is one of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.In the Province of Nova Scotia, in Halifax City where I was born, in July 2017 the following was reported: Some Halifax restaurants are giving up plastic straws and stir sticks, after being taken aback by how many they were using. Also out east in the Province of Prince Edward Island, there was a news article in April 2018 called "The last straw: Some P.E.I. restaurants look to reduce plastic use - 'If we can eliminate such an unnecessary piece of garbage, it would be great to do so'". In New Brunswick, a restaurant chain in Moncton, Dieppe and Shediac decided in 2017 that they are no longer offering plastic straws to their customers. "According to the owner, Kolin Barely, his is the first establishment in Moncton to cut out plastic straw use entirely, after he found that all three St James Gate locations go through around 150,000 straws annually". A lot is happening in the Province of Ontario where I live. In 2017 there was an article about Toronto bars starting to move away from plastic straws to save the environment because bar owners say straws are an unnecessary waste, and opt to use biodegradable straws for customers who need them. An initiative called The Last Straw in Toronto started in 2018 that aims to reduce single-use plastic in Toronto restaurants and bars. In the city of Guelph in 2018 the University of Guelph said goodbye to plastic bags and straws. Along with the University announcement the Plastic Free Guelph advocacy group works to remove straws in the city. In the prairies, in the Province of Saskatchewan there was a January 2018 article about Saskatoon restaurants choosing eco-friendly options over non-recyclable plastic straws. In the Province of Alberta, there was an April 2018 article about Edmonton restaurants joining the plastic straw ban movement, despite the lack of committal from our Prime Minister. On the Western boarder in British Columbia, in the Okanagan Valley there was a February 2018 article about a plastic straw ban taking hold. In Vancouver city on the west coast, there was a 2016 May article about the Surfrider Foundation's #StrawsSuck campaign targeting Vancouver restaurants and cafés. In April 2018 there was an article about the city of Vancouver seeking public input on reducing single-use plastic bags, straws and coffee cups. From up north in the Northwest Territories and Yellowknife City, there was an April 2018 article about some Yellowknife bars choosing to ditch plastic straws. Also in Canada, Boston Pizza switched to biodegradable straws from plastic straws in January 2017. "Across our 380 restaurants in Canada, each restaurant might go through an average of maybe over 120,000 straws a year. So that's a huge impact," says Cygal. Once again most of these initiatives were grass root. These examples were obtained from a very quick internet search.
“Bans can play a role,” says oceanographer Kara Lavendar Law, a co-author with Jambeck of the 2015 Science study. “We are not going to solve the problem by banning straws.” Scientists say that unless you are disabled or a small child, plastic straws are generally unnecessary and a ban is start and good symbol. These items that people use for a few minutes but “are sticking round for our lifetime and longer,” Lippiatt says. Marcus Eriksen, an environmental scientist who co-founded the advocacy group 5 Gyres, says working on bans of straws and plastic bags would bring noticeable change. He calls plastic bags, cups and straws that break down in smaller but still harmful pieces the “smog of microplastics.”
Purchasing reusable straws: http://www.greenmunch.ca/reusable-straws/
We're Not Anti-Straw, We're Pro Alternatives
For parents, here is a fun July 2017 article entitled "Want to save the planet? Start by saying no to the plastic straw - Reducing waste and helping protect the environment can start with small changes"."Humans have produced 18.2 trillion pounds of plastics since large-scale production began in the early 1950s and we've put most of it in the trash."What does that mean though? Here is a visual from 2017: According to the United Nations, more than eight million tonnes of plastic leak into the ocean each year, "equal to dumping a garbage truck of plastic every minute."
The actual number of straws being used is unclear. Calderon, along with news outlets writing about this issue—from CNN to the San Francisco Chronicle—unfailingly state that Americans use 500 million plastic straws a day, many of them ending up in waterways and oceans. The 500 million figure is often attributed to the National Park Service; it in turn got it from the recycling company Eco-Cycle. Eco-Cycle is unable to provide any data to back up this number, telling Reason that it was relying on the research of one Milo Cress. Cress—whose Be Straw Free Campaign is hosted on Eco-Cycle's website—tells Reason that he arrived at the 500 million straws a day figure from phone surveys he conducted of straw manufacturers in 2011, when he was just 9 years old. Cress, who is now 16, says that the National Restaurant Association has endorsed his estimates in private correspondence. This may well be true, but the only references to the 500 million figure on the association's website again points back to the work done by Cress. More important than how many straws Americans use each day is how many wind up in waterways. We don't know that figure either. The closest we have is the number of straws collected by the California Coastal Commission during its annual Coastal Cleanup Day: a total of 835,425 straws and stirrers since 1988, or about 4.1 percent of debris collected.
Perspectives · Project Management
"All is flux, nothing stays still." - Heraclitus
"The art of progress is to preserve order amid change and to preserve change amid order." - Alfred North Whitehead
When I ask "what is a project?" I enjoy the different perspectives and interpretations. Concepts like work packages, ongoing operational tasks and even programmes are often perceived as projects. Recently, in my role as convenor for ISO 21500 and as one of the writers for the new GPM Global "Sustainable Project Management: The GPM Reference Guide" I have seen this discussion continue. A significant portion of this post stems from the herculean work Bill Duncan has done with his research (an example is shown here) and editing for our new guide. This post will highlight several challenges with coming up with a universally understood agreement on specifically what a project is. This is in spite of the fact that humans have been managing projects for thousands of years. For context, the focus will be on "what is a project?", not project management, nor what is a project manager, nor the business of developing the product.GPM Global Sustainable Project Management 2018: A project is an investment that requires a set of coordinated activities performed over a finite period of time in order to accomplish a unique result in support of a desired outcome. Merriam-Webster 2017: A specific plan or design. Oxford Dictionary 2017: An individual or collaborative enterprise that is carefully planned to achieve a particular aim. Cambridge Dictionary 2017: A piece of planned work or an activity that is finished over a period of time and intended to achieve a particular purpose. AXELOS PRINCE2 2017 Edition: A temporary organization that is created for the purpose of delivering one or more business products according to a specified Business Case. Max Wideman Composite additions from various sources 1998-2017: A novel undertaking or systematic process to create a new product or service the delivery of which signals completion. Projects involve risk and are typically constrained by limited resources. PMI PMBOK Guide 6th Edition 2017: A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result. ISO 10006-2017: Unique process undertaken to achieve an objective (there are 6 Notes to this entry). IPMA ICB4 2015: A project is a unique, temporary, multi-disciplinary and organized endeavour to realize agreed deliverables within predefined requirements and constraints. ISO 21500-2012: A project consists of a unique set of processes consisting of coordinated and controlled activities with start and end dates, performed to achieve project objectives. APM Body of Knowledge 6th edition 2012: A project is a unique, transient endeavour, undertaken to achieve planned objectives, which could be defined in terms of outputs, outcomes or benefits. Cooke-Davies, T. J., From an unpublished thesis, August 2000: A human endeavor legitimately regarded by its stakeholders as a project (because) it encompasses a unique scope of work that is constrained by cost and time (and) the purpose of which is to create or modify a product or service to achieve beneficial change defined by quantitative and qualitative objectives British Standard BS6079-1996: A unique set of coordinated activities, with definite starting and finishing points, undertaken by an individual or organization to meet specific objectives within a defined schedule of cost and performance parameters.
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